Globalization
and Real Estate in the Pan Pacific
Region |
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Michael
D. Blaschuk,
AACI, P.App - Canada
Director, Real Estate Services,
Public Works & Govt Services Canada |
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1. Executive Summary |
Most simple definitions of "Globalization" describe
the way in which people, goods, money and
ideas are moved around the world faster and
cheaper today than ever before. Most papers
and publications have looked at globalization
and the resulting relative ease of the transferability
of capital as the principle new driver in
real property markets. While this is certainly
a fact in the supply-side of the real property
market model it also has a new impact on
the demand-side of the equation. This paper
looks at: |
1.) |
the development of trans-border
real property markets centred more
around "market regions" or "geo-economic
regions" than around geo-political
boundaries, and |
2.) |
the need for global standards for
professional real property services. |
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2. Introduction |
The world has changed and there is a "revolution
in commerce, in the power of nations, in
the customs, the industry and the government
of all peoples." Business people from
developed nations "circulate unceasingly
around the globe" and we are now connected
by "flying bridges of communication." These
are not new thoughts, as Emma Rothschild,
Director of the Centre for History and Economics,
Cambridge University reminds us but rather
the writings of Abb? Raynal, one of the most
popular political commentators of the 18th
century, writing in 1770. What has changed
is the speed of the effects of globalization:
people, ideas, money and goods move around
the world much faster today than they did
in 1770.
Developments in technology, particularly through electronic
communications media such as the Internet means that people
around the globe are more connected to each other than ever
before. Information and capital flow easier and faster. In
some cases the ease of the movement of capital has been cited
as a singular cause of declining and stagnant real estate
markets being experienced in some parts of the world today.
Globalization also has another equally important effect:
goods and services can now move more easily and are increasingly
available in all parts of the world. This has a two-fold
effect on real property markets and on those people who offer
professional services in these same markets. |
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3. Globalization
and Real Property Markets |
Alistair Adair (et al) in their paper "Globalization
of Real Estate Markets in Central Europe" argue
that the degree of international capital
investment in real property has been increasing
since the 1980s and has risen to unprecedented
levels citing that "… over the
period 1993-95 foreign direct investment
inflows grew by 40% to $317bn (Economic Intelligence
Unit, 1997)…". They conclude that
this is "…primarily due to the
expansion of regional integration, multi-national
company competition, liberalisation of investment
regimes and world-wide privatization."
While the flow of capital has had a significant impact on
real property markets world-wide, globalization has also
impacted these same markets through the relative ease of
movement of people, goods and ideas (the other parts of the
globalization equation).
Juliet Oxborrow, of Investment International in an article
dated September 1997 suggests that "…a new school
of investment management argues that geographical allocation
is becoming a thing of the past. As companies become globalized
and economies are increasingly run along the same lines,
it is not a question of where you are investing but what
you are investing in".
Globalization is also emphasizing the importance of "the
city" over the broader "geo-economic" boundaries
associated with states/provinces and countries. These local
market areas are becoming more influential than many of the
regional government structures. According to UNESCO, in 1950
Asia accounted for 25% of the population in the world's 30
largest cities. Today they account for nearly 54% and are
projected to reach 60% by 2010. |
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This suggests that real property markets
will not be based on country-wide "geo-political" boundaries
but rather on economic boundaries with the "geographic
unit" being the City. That is, a global
real property market exists based on the
movements of goods and services as much as
it does based on the movement of capital.
While much of Asia struggles with a declining
real estate cycle, parts of China (particularly
Shanghai) continue to experience developing
real estate markets. This appears to be based
on the "geo-economic" marketplace
than the "geo-political" marketplace.
This further suggests that the "City" as
the regional market will play a greater role
over that of the "Country" itself.
In Canada we used to talk about the "Canadian Real
Estate Market". Recently we have identified that we
do not have one single market operating in Canada. We have
a number of markets that depend on differing global influences
and that we may have a number of differing markets within
a small geographic area. One simply has to look at the office
space market in the major cities in Canada to realize that
they are not operating in concert in a "one-world" reaction
to globalization. The markets in Vancouver (Asia/timber based);
Calgary (oil based); Toronto (financial-based); and Ottawa
(high-tech based) have performed in significantly different
manners. |
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This means for Public Works and Government
Services Canada, as Canada's largest holder
of office space, that globalization and its
impact on real property markets are a major
concern, even if investments and acquisitions
are made locally. The Vancouver market is
more dependent on its relation to the Pacific-Rim
countries. This is not because of its "geo-political" interdependence
but is attributed to its "geo-economic" influence.
Grouping our major urban centres with other
urban centres around the globe that operate
in similar economic spheres shows the close
interdependence. Vancouver has more in common
with real property markets in Hong Kong and
Tokyo than with Toronto or Montreal. Whereas
Vancouver experienced a softening of the
market in 2001, Tokyo and Hong Kong both
experienced similar decreases in housing
and office prices.
Calgary's oil-based real estate market has more in common
with the cities of Halifax and St. John's on Canada's (5,000
miles away) east coast than the other real property markets
in western Canada. The eastern coast cities of Halifax and
St. John's are now shifting from marine-based economies to
coastal oil-producing and exploration economies. |
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Toronto, Canada's financial and corporate
headquarters centre, compares more favourably
with its counterparts in New York and London.
House prices jumped 11.2% in London and 11.5%
in New York in 2001. Toronto suburbs of Willowdale
and Woodbridge experienced market value increases
of 11.6% and 10.8%, respectively, for the
same time period.
Ottawa, as well as being the nation's
capital, is also the high-technology
centre for the nation. This means that
the recent downturn in this market sector
has resulted in a shift in demand for
office space, particularly in the suburban
area of the city that is most favoured
by the high-tech companies. Due to the
dichotomy of the markets, the space traditionally
used by the government sector has remained
relatively stable, however, the global
downturn in the high-technology market
has definitely affected the real estate
sub-markets in Ottawa. |
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This is not only evidenced in the immediate
increase in vacancy rates but also in the
residential markets. Residential prices in
the suburban community of Kanata, long favoured
by the high-tech community have softened
whereas most other residential property markets
in the Greater Ottawa area have continued
to increase since the high-tech meltdown.
Ottawa, particularly Kanata, because
of its emphasis on high-technology, has
a close correlation to real estate prices
in San Jose/San Francisco and Dublin,
Ireland. Dublin experienced a residential
real property value increase of 14.6%
in 2001. The residential market values
in Kanata increased by 18.9% over the
same time frame. Prices in San Francisco
increased only 4.5% in the same time
period, however, they arte considered
to be at the leading edge of the market
and experienced on increase of 33%for
the year 2000 over the year 1999.
What this means to the Government of
Canada is that although it may have most
of its real property holdings (with the
exception of its embassies and consulates)
within the geo-political boundaries of
Canada, we must realize that globalization
means that we truly operate in many global
markets that are defined by geo-economic
boundaries. Our investment strategies,
whether they be national, regional or
community-based need to reflect that
we operate within a market more influenced
by global activities and than by geo-political
boundaries. |
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4. Globalization
and Professional Standards |
These new global real estate markets will
also be impacting the real estate professional.
Investors and property owners that operate
in a global market have little patience for
regionally unique "standards" in
this same global market place. This means
that global standards and global professional
real property associations that enforce these
standards will become more prevalent. The
same office building in Jakarta or Ottawa
should have the same measured building area.
This is now not always the case as governments
and the industry don't always agree on measurement
standards and these standards can vary from
country to country. Pressure for international
standards in all aspects of the real estate
professions (appraisal, property management,
brokerage, etc.) will continue to increase.
As a result, professional associations that,
to date, have been oriented around "geo-political" boundaries
will be under great pressure to develop global
alliances with an emphasis on global standards.
I am pleased to note the recent creation
of the World Association of Valuation Organizations
(WAVO) as an example. One of my managers
is the first Chair of this developing organization. |
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5. Conclusion |
The world is a different place in this
new millennium. Globalization has led to
a much more competitive marketplace with
much more informed clients. Real property
professions professionals need to understand
that although they operate in regional markets,
they must be aware of the global implications
that shape these markets. The professional
that strikes strategic alliances; recognizes
the global marketplace; and learns to operate
outside the "geo-political" boundaries
of their original sphere of expertise will
not only survive, they will prosper.
The Real Property Services group at Public Works and Government
Services Canada recognizes that "globalization" and "real
estate" do not combine in to one homogenous global real
estate market but a collection of markets influenced by the "geo-economic" market
fluctuations and niches. In acting as the Government of Canada's
real property experts we will endeavour to strike international
alliances with other similar government organizations to
ensure we provide the best possible service to the Canadian
taxpayer. |
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References |
"Globalization of Real Estate Markets
in Central Europe" Alistair Adair,
Jim Berry and Stanley McGreal (University
of Ulster) Ludek S?kora (Charles University,
Prague) Ali Ghanbari Parsa, Barry Redding
(South Bank University, London)
Juliet Oxborrow of Investment International in an article dated September
1997
"The Politics of Globalization Circa 1773", Emma Rothschild, Director
of the Centre for History and Economics, Cambridge University, December 19, 2001 |
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Biography |
Mr. Blaschuk has been involved in
the real estate industry for 25 years
in the fields of brokerage, appraisals
and tax. His educational background
includes diplomas in Real Estate and
Appraisal. He is a professionally accredited
member of the Appraisal Institute of
Canada. Until recently he was the Chief
Appraiser for the Government of Canada
and was just appointed as the Director
of Accommodation and Real Estate Services. |
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